The best stay private forever

IPOs aren't the goal anymore. For the best founders, they're a distraction. Something you do when you have no other choice. The headaches are bigger, and the rewards don't justify the tradeoffs. The truth is, great companies don't need to go public anymore. So they don't.

Hit your quarter, stay out of the headlines, keep analysts happy. It's a system that punishes long-term thinking. Even the best operators—Musk, Bezos, Sundar—are stuck playing defense. Layer on regulatory complexity, ESG reporting, activist investors, and it's clear: if you don't have to IPO, you shouldn't.

Private Capital Has Changed the Game

There was a time when public markets were the only way to raise meaningful growth capital. That era is over. Since the GFC, venture AUM has exploded from $300B to over $3T. What was once boutique is now institutionalized, and for good reasons. Excluding returns from the big tech growth stocks public market returns suck. No surprise that during the same period of time we've seen privates assets ballon in size, the number of publicly listed companies shrunk over 10%.

Today, late-stage private rounds routinely hit $500M+. These used to be exclusive domain of public-markets. Now they're happening behind closed doors, led by crossovers, sovereigns, and pension funds who need exposure to the best growth stories to keep up with their obligations.

Just like growth capital, liquidity for early team and investors used to be a big reason to go public. But neither is true anymore. Secondaries have exploded in popularity to become a real liquidity path for anyone that needs it. SpaceX, Stripe, OpenAI, Databricks proved it many times over: for the companies where demand exceeds primary supply, secondaries clear at or above the last round price.

Permanent Capital Wins

Thrive, Coatue, Sequoia, Tiger—they're not venture funds in the traditional sense. They're permanent capital platforms. They don't need to exit. They're not playing for DPI. They're building Blackstone-like positions in the best private companies and holding for as long as they want.

Father's Office Slice
Father's Office Slice
Source: Pitchbook and Coatue Management, L.L.C. ("Coatue") analysis as of June 2025. Data set determined by selecting all VC-backed TMT companies globally from Pitchbook data; set includes companies that have raised a priced round in the preceding two years for each year, respectively.

There's no more room at that table. The franchise window is closed. Just like there won't be another Vanguard or Fidelity, there won't be another Sequoia. Competing with these platforms at growth is a losing game. If you're not already in the round, you're not getting in.

So What Now?

For retail investors? The door's mostly shut. The Mag 7 carried the S&P for the last decade. Once that's done, there's not another class of mega-cap IPOs waiting in the wings. Most of the upside has already been captured in private.

But for family offices and UHNW investors, the strategy is clear: barbell it. (1) Anchor on late-stage private positions with public-like multiples. (2) Get in early where possible, through networks and operator-led pre-seeds. (3) Use secondaries as a way in, not just a way out.

Liquidity is no longer a finish line—it's a tool. For early-stage investors, secondaries aren't an emergency exit. They're capital recycling. They're what lets you keep playing, keep backing the next one, and compound winners before the market ever gets a taste.

The Old Playbook Is Over

Venture used to be: fund managers, wait for IPOs, return capital, rinse, repeat. That model doesn't work anymore. The best companies aren't exiting, and capital sitting on the sidelines is just getting diluted.

We're in a new era. The ones who adapt will own it. Everyone else will just keep waiting.